The country's current account deficit is likely to hit a three-year high of 1.8 per cent or $43.81 billion in FY22, as against a surplus of 0.9 per cent or $23.91 billion in FY21, a report said on Thursday. According to an assessment by India Ratings, the Current Account Deficit (CAD) has moderated to $17.3 billion or 1.96 per cent of GDP in the fourth quarter of FY22 as against $8.2 billion or 1.03 per cent in the year-ago period, and massively down from $23.02 billion or 2.74 per cent in Q3, which was a 13-quarter high. The improvement in the key numbers are due to the remarkable improvement in merchandise exports in FY22, when it grew 42.4 per cent as against a negative 7.5 per cent in the pandemic-hit FY121.
From the peak of $3.67 trillion in January, India's market cap has eroded by $676 billion amid rising bond yields and a record-breaking sell-off by overseas investors.
The sweeping economic sanctions on Russia - the second largest producer of crude oil - following its invasion of Ukraine late last month can cull global and domestic growth along with the added pains of higher inflation and currency depreciation, RBI Deputy Governor Michael Patra has said. And if the war lingers on, it can even lead to deglobalisation and even a recession, he added. The ongoing war has only added a whole new dimension to the outlook, and in fact, a weighty downside, Patra said in a lecture at the industry lobby IMC on Friday evening.
India's harsh lockdown has left companies grappling with temporary closure, chaotic supply chains and depressed demand. Consequently, business plans have been modified.
A healthy growth in India's services segments has helped the country's total exports and imports of goods and services to cross the $800 billion mark during the first half of 2023, despite a slowdown in global demand, think tank GTRI said in a report on Monday. According to the analysis of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), exports of goods and services rose by 1.5 per cent to $385.4 billion during January-June this year, as against $379.5 billion in January-June 2022. Imports, however, dipped by 5.9 per cent to $415.5 billion during the six months of this year, as against $441.7 billion in January-June 2022.
Infosys was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, jumping over 4 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, ITC, Maruti, SBI and Axis Bank. On the other hand, HCL Tech, M&M, Dr Reddy's, Asian Paints, Bajaj Auto and Bharti Airtel were among the laggards.
Three business houses are likely to be in the final race to strike a deal with Germany's Metro AG for investing in its India unit -- Metro Cash & Carry. Industry sources in the know named Reliance, Adani Group, and Thailand's conglomerate Charoen Pokphand (CP) as potential frontrunners to acquire a partial or full stake in the Gurugram-headquartered Metro Cash & Carry, which has 31 stores and 5,000 direct employees. Around 20 companies, including strategic and private equity investors, were approached by the German chain, inviting them to bid for the Indian wholesale business, according to a source aware of the M&A developments.
The applications range from disaster recovery to predicting demand and understanding customer choices using artificial intelligence.
Stocks of Indian companies with exposure to Europe fell on Tuesday amid concerns about the impact on their sales in case the Russia-Ukraine crisis worsens and the US and its allies impose economic sanctions on Russia. While top conglomerates, including Reliance Industries, the Tata group, and Aditya Birla Group, said they did not have any significant exposure to Russia, executives of some of the oil and gas, pharmaceutical, and tea companies said they were monitoring the situation closely as they earned substantial income from the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered troops into two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine after announcing that Russia would recognise their independence.
'There are occasions when the prices of individual items like food raise inflation; then supply-side measures must be taken.' 'But if there is continued inflation, it means liquidity is aggravating the situation.'
'As the 1991 experience showed, the solution to a large trade deficit may be to open up the economy, not putting up protective walls,' points out T N Ninan.
Equity indices gave up early gains to close in the red for the third session on the trot on Wednesday, weighed by selling in banking and finance counters amid inflationary pressures and persistent foreign fund outflows. A weak rupee and lacklustre global cues also kept buying sentiment in check, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex opened on a firm footing but failed to hold on the momentum, finishing 237.44 points or 0.41 per cent lower at 58,338.93. On similar lines, the broader NSE Nifty dipped 54.65 points or 0.31 per cent to close at 17,475.65.
India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to expand by 9.2 per cent in the current financial year, according to the Economic Survey 2021-22 tabled in the parliament on Monday. "Advance estimates suggest that the Indian economy is expected to witness real GDP expansion of 9.2 per cent in 2021-22 after contracting in 2020-21. "This implies that overall economic activity has recovered past the pre-pandemic levels," Economic Survey noted. Almost all indicators show that the economic impact of the "second wave" in Q1 was much smaller than that experienced during the full lockdown phase in 2020-21 even though the health impact was more severe, it said.
In a double delight, retail inflation eased to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent - staying below the upper tolerance limit for two months in a row, while factory output rose sharply to 7.2 per cent on the back of healthy growth in manufacturing. The retail inflation numbers based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide some room for the Reserve Bank to further moderate the quantum of hike in key interest rate or even press a pause button. The RBI has been on a rate hiking spree since May 2022 in its bid to tame inflation, having raised the repo rate by a cumulative 225 basis points (bps).
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries has signed a pact to invest an undisclosed amount in a giant petrochemical hub being built in the UAE. The oil-to-telecom conglomerate will join the recently-formed Ta'ziz joint venture of Abu Dhabi state energy giant Adnoc and state holding company ADQ for developing the Ruwais Derivatives Park in western Abu Dhabi. A company statement said an agreement has been signed for Reliance to invest in the project but did not give details. Unconfirmed reports put the investment at about $1.5 billion.
Notwithstanding the inflation pinch, analysts believe the Indian retail sector is on the 'cusp of accelerated earnings growth' as consumer sentiment and discretionary purchases bounce back from the Covid-19 pandemic. "The shift in consumer preference from the unorganised sector to the organised, coupled with uptick in domestic demand as people resume work from office, will cheer the Indian retail sector," says Nishit Master, portfolio manager, Axis Securities. Shopping malls are witnessing increased footfall in lower tier towns and standalone stores as consumption picks up and mobility improves.
The latest hike is likely to be followed by another such move next month, said industry players. Before the latest hike, companies had initiated price hikes to the tune of 12-13 per cent in 2021 but they weren't able to fully cover the increase in costs.
Sectors with positive growth during the month include rice, iron ore, oil seeds, oil meals, meat, dairy and poultry products, pharmaceuticals, coffee, engineering goods, and plastic.
Reliance Industries Ltd will acquire German firm Metro AG's wholesale operations in India for Rs 2,850 crore as the conglomerate run by billionaire Mukesh Ambani seeks to strengthen its dominant position in India's mammoth retail sector. "Reliance Retail Ventures Limited (RRVL), a subsidiary of Reliance Industries Ltd, signed definitive agreements to acquire a 100 per cent equity stake in Metro Cash & Carry India for a total cash consideration of Rs 2,850 crore, subject to closing adjustments," said a joint statement. Through this acquisition, Reliance Retail will get access to a network of Metro India stores located in prime locations across key cities, along with a large base of registered kiranas and other institutional customers, and a strong supplier network.
India's gross tax collections soared to a record high of Rs 27.07 lakh crore in the fiscal year ended March 31, led by impressive growth in corporate tax and customs, taking the tax-to-GDP ratio to an over two-decade high of 11.7 per cent, Revenue Secretary Tarun Bajaj said on Friday.
In spite of a severe second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, and a widespread disruption in public life therefore, India's fast-moving consumer goods (FMGC) sector seems to have emerged as one of the most resilient segments of the economy. The early numbers and estimates for the April-June quarter indicate a steady recovery in FMCG players' business, which is now set to exceed the pre-pandemic level. Amid nationwide lockdowns because of the first Covid wave, FMCG revenues had been severely affected in mid-2020.
'Investors should keep them on their radar and invest over a longer time frame, and expect some of these companies to bite the dust.'
To prevent rise in air pollution levels, oil marketing companies and thermal power units were planning to procure stubble from farmers to make bioethanol and promote the central government's 'Agricultural Mechanization' for crop residue management. But both have seen minimal success.
Spiralling prices pinched the pocket of consumer as edible oil, fuel and many other commodities turned dearer this year amid pandemic-induced disruptions but the inflationary pressure is anticipated to ease, though marginally, in the coming months. As consumers, at retail as well as wholesale levels, are willy-nilly learning to live with the new normal of curbs to contain the spread of coronavirus infections, experts are of the view that elevated inflation is likely to stay longer. After dealing with the devastating blows from the second COVID wave, especially during the April-June period, the economy is well on the revival path but the emergence of Omicron might unsettle the recovery trajectory in the short term.
'As we expect the economy to continue to grow above the trend line, we expect capex decisions to be taken next year when there is more certainty about the cost of funding and the economy.'
The recurrent increases in fuel prices over the past 10 days are eating into the margins of transporters, who will be forced to pass on the hikes to their customers. This, in turn, is set to make the prices of daily consumables and other goods dearer, affect consumption, and slow economic growth, said transporters and analysts. Freight rates on grand trunk routes have shot up 3-4 per cent month-on-month in the past few days, according to the Indian Foundation of Transport Research & Training (IFTRT).
Four companies - Rajesh Exports, Hyundai Global Motors Company, Ola Electric Mobility and Reliance New Energy - are eligible for receiving benefits under the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for advanced chemistry cell battery storage, the heavy industries ministry said on Thursday. The allotment was made for a total of 50 GWh of battery capacity to the four successful bidders. These firms, the ministry said, will receive incentives under India's Rs 18,100 crore programme to boost local battery cell production.
Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said the new timing of the price change was agreeable to the dealers and so daily price revision will be implemented from June 16
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani on Friday backed the proposed data privacy and cryptocurrency bills, saying India is putting in place the most forward-looking policies and regulations. Ambani, who has been a votary of Indians owning and controlling their own data and the nation drafting strict rules around how digital information is stored and shared, said nations have the right to build and protect strategic digital infrastructure. Stating that data is the 'new oil', he said every citizen's right to privacy has to be safeguarded. "India is putting in place the most forward-looking policies and regulations," he said at the Infinity Forum, hosted by International Financial Services Centres Authority (IFSCA).
The highest compensation package for the Global MBA class at the S P Jain School of Management stood at Rs 43.9 lakh while that for the MGB programme was Rs 35 lakh.
After unseasonal rains, supply disruptions and pandemic-induced woes pushed retail inflation well over the Reserve Bank's comfort zone in 2020, the scenario is likely to stay that way at least in the short term as economic recovery slowly gains foothold. For most part of this year, pricier food items pushed the retail inflation, based on Consumer Price Index (CPI), higher in the range of 6.58-7.61 per cent, except for March when the reading was 5.91 per cent. Experts believe retail inflation is likely to average around 6.3 per cent this fiscal and mostly will remain sticky going forward owing to pick-up in demand across sectors.
Reliance Retail Ventures Ltd, run by India's richest man Mukesh Ambani, on Tuesday raised Rs 5,512.50 crore from Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), taking the total fundraise to Rs 37,710 crore in less than four weeks.
The Reserve Bank's growth projection for next financial year is lower than 8-8.5 per cent projected by the finance ministry in the recent Economic Survey which was tabled in Parliament on January 31. Unveiling the bi-monthly policy, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said, "Recovery in domestic economic activity is yet to be broad-based, as private consumption and contact-intensive services remain below pre-pandemic levels."
'90 per cent of the food and grocery business is still with the kiranas.' 'If kiranas are not allowed to operate, it becomes a serious issue.'
IHS said low regulated gas prices have precipitated a supply shortfall in India, but proposed that reforms to the pricing formula could yield higher domestic production and boost India's economy.
The dairy major is transforming into a full-fledged F&B and fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) player, reports Vinay Umarji.
'Indices will remain range bound in 2022 as earnings catch up with the current multiples.'
The Saudi and Iraq offer to replace Iranian crude supplies comes with a catch: Higher prices for the same quality of crude. The new government will face a tough decision over fuel price hike, says Aveek Sen.
Citing the massive surge in Omicron infections and the resultant impact on overall economic activities in the March quarter, Swiss brokerage UBS Securities has revised downwards its India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 9.1 per cent from 9.5 per cent earlier. However, UBS Securities does not see the third wave impact extending to the next financial year as it has revised upwards its real GDP forecast to 8.2 per cent, up from 7.7 per cent earlier, expecting the real GDP growth to remain well above the historical average. The World Bank pegs it at 8.3 per cent, unchanged from its June assessment, saying the recovery is not broad-based yet.
Rating agencies Crisil and Icra on Monday revised down their India growth projections for the current fiscal and the second quarter mainly due to the ripple effect of slowdown in global growth and mixed crop output. Crisil downgraded the India growth forecast by 30 bps to 7 per cent while Icra pegged the economic expansion at 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY2022-23. "We have revised down our forecast for real gross domestic product growth to 7 per cent for fiscal 2023 from 7.3 per cent, primarily because of the slowdown in global growth that has started to impact our exports and industrial activity.
